BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – In November, faculty at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business toured the state, sharing its annual economic forecast for the coming year.
While the presentations are valuable and attract news coverage, a yearly special issue of the Indiana Business Review, published by the Indiana Business Research Center, provides an opportunity for much deeper dive into the forecast and how local communities may be affected.
The special issue includes nearly 20 articles, including those about the state housing picture and financial markets, as well as economic forecasts for 2020 for the nation, state and 14 cities and metropolitan statistical areas. They include forecasts for Indianapolis, Louisville and cities where the Business Outlook Panel didn’t travel to, including Fort Wayne and Muncie.
Articles are prepared by Kelley professors and economists, as well as contributors from Ball State University, Purdue University and Purdue University Fort Wayne, the University of Southern Indiana, IU East, IU Northwest, IU Kokomo, IU South Bend, IU Southeast, Indiana State University and Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology.
In its overall forecast, the Kelley School panel indicated that the U.S. economy will continue to expand for a 12th consecutive year in 2020, but by only about 2 percent and struggling to remain at that level by year’s end. Indiana’s economic output will be more anemic, growing at a rate of about 1.25 percent.
Here are highlights from the special issue of Indiana Business Review (click on the links to full articles):
- The Indiana housing market remains locked in a standoff between strong buyer demand and scant supply. With the inventory of homes on the market likely to remain exceptionally low in 2020, total housing starts should continue to increase. However, the strong house price gains threaten to put homeownership out of reach for more Hoosiers.
- No room for mistakes in international markets. The anticipated recovery of economic activity in the emerging markets will drive the 2020 global growth estimate of 3.4 percent. But much uncertainty remains, driven by continued Brexit concerns and several ongoing trade disputes.
- Indiana is expected to experience slower job growth and gross output due to a tight labor market. With fewer and fewer people available to hire, the tightness of the Indiana labor markets will serve as a drag on output and employment growth.
For the Kelley School, this holiday season is particularly meaningful. This year marks Kelley’s Centennial, and everyone is proud to celebrate the school’s 100-year history at the same time IU celebrates its Bicentennial. In this video, Kelley students, faculty and staff in Bloomington and Indianapolis share what makes Kelley special and what they hope Kelley’s next century will bring.